Military/Intelligence Bulletin 08/2016 – Russian Roulette.
Red Alert! Is the upgrading of the Russian Federation’s armed forces and the various International deployments indicating a return to the Cold War of old?
So where are the Russian forces currently deployed?
Kaliningrad, part of the Western Military District, is strategically placed. With Poland to the south and southwest, Belarus to the southeast and Lithuania to the east, the Kaliningrad Defensive Area plays a key role in countering the US missile defence system in Europe and places Russian forces directly behind the three Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
The forces in situ are significant – Voronezh DM early-warning radar, 25th Coastal Missile Regiment, 336th Naval Infantry Brigade, 244th Artillery Brigade, 3rd Aerospace Defence Brigade, 79th Motor Rifle Brigade, 7th Motor Rifle Brigade and the 152nd Missile Brigade. There are also three Aviation Groups (Helicopters, transport aircraft, bombers and fighters) along with naval surface forces.
Crimea, a region of Ukraine of its southern coast.
It is common knowledge that the Russian Federation has reinforced Crimea, threatening the underbelly of mainland Ukraine. The minimum Russian forces in situ late 2015/early 2016 are as follows:
126th Naval Infantry Brigade (formerly Ukrainian forces, but now incorporated into the Russian military), 810th Naval Infantry Brigade, 127th Independent Recce Brigade, 219th Independent EW Regiment, 1096th SAM Regiment, 15th Coastal Missile Brigade, 1 battalion from 11th Anti-ship missile Brigade, 31st Air Defence Division and the 8th Artillery Regiment. They are supported by helicopters from 318th Mixed Aviation Regiment and the 38th Fighter Regiment. For naval forces, the Black Sea Fleet has the 11th ASW Ship Brigade, 41st Missile Boat Brigade, 197th Landing Ship Brigade and the 68th Area Protection Ship Brigade.
Russian equipment newly deployed to Crimea, consists of:
T-72B3 Main Battle Tanks, BTR-82A, Su-30SM Flanker (FGA), SU27SM Flanker (FGA), SA-20 Gargoyle SAM, K-300P Bastion (SSC-5-Stooge Anti-ship missiles) and 3K60 Bal (SSC-6 Sennight Anti-ship missiles).
More forces are believed to be on their way.
Transdniester, a partially recognised country between the River Dniester
and the eastern Moldovam border with Ukraine
A country few people are aware of. It is a constant threat to peace in Moldova and has at least 1,500 Russian military deployed there. 2 Motor Rifle battalions with approximately 100 MBTs/AIFVs/APCs. there are also 7 Mi-24 Hind and 8 Mi-8 Hip helicopters.
Again, these forces are ideally positioned, particularly if reinforced, to create havoc, supporting any attack on Ukraine.
Not forgetting the Russian Arctic Joint Strategic Command, ensuring Russian military presence in polar waters.
There are Russian, and Russian backed pro-Russian separatists, forces in Ukraine itself. I will cover those in a later Post. Also Central Asia, Caucasus, Syria and the Black Sea.
Post copyrighted to Harvey Black
Thanks for the email Harvey,
It’ll be interesting to see the final NATO battalion deployment to the Baltic states.
The next 9 months whilst this occurs is the key to the deterrent value of the NATO alliances move to any possible Russian invasion.
I wonder what the Kremlins plans really are.
Is Sir Richard Shirreff right ?
The West is slow to respond and it is accepted that Russia could take the Baltic states within 24-36 hours and NATO could do little to stop them.
Lots of bad reviews about Sherriff’s book, but the only way I will find out if it makes sense is by reading it.
Russia has positioned its pieces, the next 12 months will decide whether or not it is checkmate.
Writing Deception now, maybe that will be the answer…. 🙂